Today's weather: High = 15 Low = 12
Cloudy
After having stayed put in Shanghai for two months now and really getting into the swing of things at work, I'm happy to say now I actually look forward to the next trip --- wherever that may be. It probably won't happen for ahwhile yet, but the fact that I actually want to travel again and hit the airports is a good sign. Earlier this year, in 2010 that is, I was going through some rather intense travel exhaustion, burnout, and the ongoing nightmare of a lost passport. It easily got to where I was actually *dreading* the next airplane, train, or bus ride. Thankfully, the excitement of travel has now come back.
There were two periods of relative stability this year. First was after the lunar new year where I hunkered down in Wuhan for about this same amount of time getting lesson plans together and taking another stab at attempting a social life. Sad to say, both those earlier attempts failed. I then went on a frantic travel spree starting around April and May, hitting the airports nearly every 2nd weekend, most of it to head down here (to Shanghai) and get set up for future jobs and social life situations which I am enjoying very much now. And so, this latest period of stability is quite good.
Ironically, I'm penciling in another trip to Wuhan sometime before Christmas. This is to retrieve 9000 RMB in old bank account funds. This was a fallout from the lost passport episode where I also lost the Wuhan bank card that had all my RMB cash from my previous job. I put in the request for a replacement card way back in August while there on a short trip -- they needed to see my new passport of course.
Unfortunately, they said back then it would take 2 weeks to process the card and I would still need to come back to pick it up with my passport. They couldn't mail it out to my new address in Shanghai. Of course, life got super busy so I haven't made any trips back to Wuhan yet. For all I know, the whole card application may need to re-processed. What I'll end up doing is proving that the account is in my name with the passport and just withdrawing all the cash on the spot.
The only question is when to take a day off work and do this. Friday is out of the question, because I'm then tied up with social activities and committments all day Saturday here in Shanghai and it's a waste of a trip to visit Wuhan in jsut a day. Sunday-Monday is a better option. If all goes well, I'll head in there, grab the cash, and leave a little richer.
The train system has now improved big time. The whole Shanghai-Nanjing section was replaced with a new high-speed track line so that particular section only takes 90 minutes. The Nanjing-Hefei-Wuhan section was already fast, so now they estimate it takes a mere 4 hours to reach Wuhan. But realistically, the total door-to-door travel time is still going to be 6-7 hours, compared to the 8 hours total it used to take. By comparision, the airplane total time is about 6 hours, or 5 hours if everything goes super well.
As mentioned in previous blogs, the first part of the problem is that all the flights to Wuhan leave from Pudong airport which is way out in the boonies. The new Hongqiao airport doesn't resolve things very much, as the Wuhan flights don't make use of it now, just like they avoided it in the past. The second part of the problem is that the airport in Wuhan is also way in the boonies, and the horrendous traffic (10 times worse than Shanghai) makes for long and tortuous journeys to the final destination.
So that's basically why I haven't been going to Wuhan much these days, and I shake my head at how many times I did this journey back and forth earlier in the year.
On a more exciting trip coming up, it's looking like India, India, and India again for the new year break! Really stoked about this one folks.
Monday, 29 November 2010
Saturday, 27 November 2010
Driest November on Record!
Today's weather: High = 17 Low = 10
Cloudy
This is rather unbelievable ... the month of November in Shanghai has only seen 0.8 mm of precipitation, and if the next 5-day forecast is correct, that's all that we're gonna get.
The low temperature has rarely gone below 10 degrees, and it has surpassed 20 on a few occasions. So in short, we've been spoiled rotten by balmy temperatures unheard of for this time of year.
The long range forecast expects similar things to happen in December, but they are calling for a substantial cold front in a week's time. We'll just have to see about that.
Last year at this time, it was freezing rain and howling winds, almost zero degrees. Not so pleasant then, but it sure is now.
Cloudy
This is rather unbelievable ... the month of November in Shanghai has only seen 0.8 mm of precipitation, and if the next 5-day forecast is correct, that's all that we're gonna get.
The low temperature has rarely gone below 10 degrees, and it has surpassed 20 on a few occasions. So in short, we've been spoiled rotten by balmy temperatures unheard of for this time of year.
The long range forecast expects similar things to happen in December, but they are calling for a substantial cold front in a week's time. We'll just have to see about that.
Last year at this time, it was freezing rain and howling winds, almost zero degrees. Not so pleasant then, but it sure is now.
Tuesday, 23 November 2010
Anomalies in the Weather
With global weather gone wild nowadays, there really aren't that many 'anomalies' in the weather anymore. In fact, the new normal is for the weather not to be normal.
The latest thing is a variation on the El-Nino and La-Nina cycle which causes the jetstream to deviate from the 'normal' pattern. The Arctic Oscillation also plays a role in this. The consensus now is that it is a La-Nina year with a strong Arctic Oscillation.
Basically it means that the western parts of North America are getting hit with record cold temperatures as the jestream has shifted to the right. Conversely, much of the SE part of the continent, for example is enjoying record warmth for this time of year and balmy breezes from the tropics.
This would certainly apply to us in Shanghai, as the jetstream patterns on side of the world mirror the patterns on the other. This time of year normally sees freezing cold arctic fronts and temperatures down to almost zero. But now we have consistently stayed about 10 degrees and it has not been windy at all. It is a total change to last year.
Other parts of the world, not like this. Friends back in Western Canada, for example, are suffering with extreme cold and snowstorms unheard of for this time of year. Sure makes me glad to be over here ---- at least for this year.
The latest thing is a variation on the El-Nino and La-Nina cycle which causes the jetstream to deviate from the 'normal' pattern. The Arctic Oscillation also plays a role in this. The consensus now is that it is a La-Nina year with a strong Arctic Oscillation.
Basically it means that the western parts of North America are getting hit with record cold temperatures as the jestream has shifted to the right. Conversely, much of the SE part of the continent, for example is enjoying record warmth for this time of year and balmy breezes from the tropics.
This would certainly apply to us in Shanghai, as the jetstream patterns on side of the world mirror the patterns on the other. This time of year normally sees freezing cold arctic fronts and temperatures down to almost zero. But now we have consistently stayed about 10 degrees and it has not been windy at all. It is a total change to last year.
Other parts of the world, not like this. Friends back in Western Canada, for example, are suffering with extreme cold and snowstorms unheard of for this time of year. Sure makes me glad to be over here ---- at least for this year.
2010 Looking to End on a More Relaxed Note
Today's weather: High = 18 Low = 8
Partly Cloudy
Well this is just for me personally ... better hold my breath before applying this to current events!
Fittingly enough, just after I started typing this blog post, I got wind of breaking news that said North Korea launched artillery fire across the border onto a South Korean island, and then SK fired back. Yikes! NK has always been in the news for doing this or that thing, and the most previous dispute was the submarine attack. But this latest one is pretty hard to dispute blame, and it looks like the entire SK military is on high alert now and preparing for more attacks.
And in more local news, there was a fire that broke out in Shanghai last week and destroyed an entire apartment complex. Now the whole city is on fire alert and the mayor is launching a series of building code crackdowns. The fire was caused by poor construction work in a neighboring building, where the work was sub-contracted out to unlicensed welders who were hired off the street. The managers soon fled after this, although some 15 were detained. Most of the migrant workers fled back to their hometowns, or were left in Shanghai without any compensation after the fire. Needless to say, unsafe work practices and lack of fire prevention are rampant like this all over the country. This is just the tip of the iceberg. The hyper response and all this typical "after-the-fact" planning come from the loss of face that the mayor would experience after such a tragedy happened in a city that just hosted the EXPO. After all, this wouldn't make major news headlines if a fire happened in, say, an interior city like Chongqing (which did happen there about 6 months ago)
Moving over to Taiwan, my friends from that area say that an earthquake happened there recently and this has some effect on upcoming local elections. Apparently they are afraid of the next guy being elected who won't be as friendly with the mainland as the current leader is. Positive ties between Taiwan and the mainland are rather key, especially with all the recent developments. Especially the direct flights now between Shanghai and Taipei that only take an hour.
Despite these sorts of things, life for myself has been going very well in the last few months. I'm happy to say that I haven't left the city at all for two months strong, and have been fitting in very well. It's gotten to the point where I actually *want* to travel again now, and look forward to wherever the next trip is.
Most of this year was a total whirlwind of traveling, and I basically hit the airport an average of once every 3 weeks! Friends who do business travel would tell me this is easy, compared to flying once a week like they do, sometimes more. But the fact of the matter is that frequent flying is exhausting. I was getting mighty sick of airplanes already this year, and pulling off a schedule like my business friends do would drive me insane.
Air travel is so exhausting because of the total time you're traveling, not just the time in the air. All the stuff about getting to/from the airport, flight delays, security checks, etc. just adds stress, not the mention the fact that waiting around in airports, transfer halls, or on the tarmac is mind-numbingly boring.
Basically I didn't really start flying until I was 22 years old. So it was a neat experience and a lot of joy at first to do this. Things would be seriously wrong if it got to the point where I didn't want to set foot in an airplane again. I guess the point is that air travel first became a special thing for me, not an exhausting ordeal --- and I'd like to keep it that way.
So feeling like I can stay put in one place for awhile is quite refreshing at this point, especially with the recent positive successes that have happened.
Recently the school where I work got a very positive review and some great feedback related to that, and things are really moving forward.
The gameplan at this point is to continue staying in Shanghai until the New Year Break, and several visitors are coming here to see me for a change.
Partly Cloudy
Well this is just for me personally ... better hold my breath before applying this to current events!
Fittingly enough, just after I started typing this blog post, I got wind of breaking news that said North Korea launched artillery fire across the border onto a South Korean island, and then SK fired back. Yikes! NK has always been in the news for doing this or that thing, and the most previous dispute was the submarine attack. But this latest one is pretty hard to dispute blame, and it looks like the entire SK military is on high alert now and preparing for more attacks.
And in more local news, there was a fire that broke out in Shanghai last week and destroyed an entire apartment complex. Now the whole city is on fire alert and the mayor is launching a series of building code crackdowns. The fire was caused by poor construction work in a neighboring building, where the work was sub-contracted out to unlicensed welders who were hired off the street. The managers soon fled after this, although some 15 were detained. Most of the migrant workers fled back to their hometowns, or were left in Shanghai without any compensation after the fire. Needless to say, unsafe work practices and lack of fire prevention are rampant like this all over the country. This is just the tip of the iceberg. The hyper response and all this typical "after-the-fact" planning come from the loss of face that the mayor would experience after such a tragedy happened in a city that just hosted the EXPO. After all, this wouldn't make major news headlines if a fire happened in, say, an interior city like Chongqing (which did happen there about 6 months ago)
Moving over to Taiwan, my friends from that area say that an earthquake happened there recently and this has some effect on upcoming local elections. Apparently they are afraid of the next guy being elected who won't be as friendly with the mainland as the current leader is. Positive ties between Taiwan and the mainland are rather key, especially with all the recent developments. Especially the direct flights now between Shanghai and Taipei that only take an hour.
Despite these sorts of things, life for myself has been going very well in the last few months. I'm happy to say that I haven't left the city at all for two months strong, and have been fitting in very well. It's gotten to the point where I actually *want* to travel again now, and look forward to wherever the next trip is.
Most of this year was a total whirlwind of traveling, and I basically hit the airport an average of once every 3 weeks! Friends who do business travel would tell me this is easy, compared to flying once a week like they do, sometimes more. But the fact of the matter is that frequent flying is exhausting. I was getting mighty sick of airplanes already this year, and pulling off a schedule like my business friends do would drive me insane.
Air travel is so exhausting because of the total time you're traveling, not just the time in the air. All the stuff about getting to/from the airport, flight delays, security checks, etc. just adds stress, not the mention the fact that waiting around in airports, transfer halls, or on the tarmac is mind-numbingly boring.
Basically I didn't really start flying until I was 22 years old. So it was a neat experience and a lot of joy at first to do this. Things would be seriously wrong if it got to the point where I didn't want to set foot in an airplane again. I guess the point is that air travel first became a special thing for me, not an exhausting ordeal --- and I'd like to keep it that way.
So feeling like I can stay put in one place for awhile is quite refreshing at this point, especially with the recent positive successes that have happened.
Recently the school where I work got a very positive review and some great feedback related to that, and things are really moving forward.
The gameplan at this point is to continue staying in Shanghai until the New Year Break, and several visitors are coming here to see me for a change.
Monday, 22 November 2010
Countin' Till Christmas
As usual, during the middle of the long stretch without a holiday, we look forward to Christmas. It's not that Christmas signifies any long holidays, in fact, we only get 4 days off total.
But when Christmas comes, New Years follows shortly after, then does final exams, and then the Chinese New Year break.
There are other neat little surprises along the way, including 3 friends who have already booked plane tickets to see me here in Shanghai before the break.
When I lived in Wuhan last year, nobody wanted to see me. Sniff Sniff. But now that I live here they do, so that works out.
As for the New Year break .... what to do? It's looking more and more like INDIA!
Can't get enough of that Indian thang.
But when Christmas comes, New Years follows shortly after, then does final exams, and then the Chinese New Year break.
There are other neat little surprises along the way, including 3 friends who have already booked plane tickets to see me here in Shanghai before the break.
When I lived in Wuhan last year, nobody wanted to see me. Sniff Sniff. But now that I live here they do, so that works out.
As for the New Year break .... what to do? It's looking more and more like INDIA!
Can't get enough of that Indian thang.
Friday, 19 November 2010
Results: Cumulative Marks are Lower
After entering some past marks data and seeing whether cumulative marks really do give lower final marks than running term-by-term marks, as in the last post, the results were quite surprising.
If we run marks the lazy way by just making a gigantic spreadsheet without any regards to weights, i.e. all assignments, tests, etc. are equally weighted, then it turns out that cumulative marks give higher final averages.
But once we start assigning weights to categories and also running cumulative marks, then the shit hits the fan.
So far I have analyzed about 5 sample sets of data, and I would like to run more, but the results are all saying the same thing. A cumulative marks-based system with weighted categories and weighted terms lowers the overall school mark by around 2 - 3% which is statistically significant.
Let's say that the school wants the terms to be weighted as follows:
Term 1 -- 15%
Term 2 -- 20%
Term 3 -- 15%
Term 4 -- 15%
Final Exam -- 30%
Let's say that there are the following categories
Tests -- 60%
Labs -- 20%
Homework -- 20%
A term-by-term spreadsheet would apply those categories to each term, calculate a mark for each term, average the marks according to the weights above, and then calculate the final grade.
A cumulative spreadsheet with weighted terms built in would do something similar, but it would calculate everything based on a percentage of the *final* mark as follows
T1 and T4 Tests -- 9% (60% x 15%)
T1 and T4 Labs -- 3%
T1 and T4 HW -- 3%
T2 and T3 Tests -- 12% (60% x 20%)
T2 and T3 Labs - 4%
T2 and T3 HW - 4%
Final Exam - 30%
A quick check shows this all adds up to 100%
No wonder the administrators always frown on this particular kind of cumulative spreadsheet. Or, in former schools I taught at, they outrightly banned this way of doing marks.
As for why the marks are lowered this way, I have some idea, but it would be too complicated to get into here.
If we run marks the lazy way by just making a gigantic spreadsheet without any regards to weights, i.e. all assignments, tests, etc. are equally weighted, then it turns out that cumulative marks give higher final averages.
But once we start assigning weights to categories and also running cumulative marks, then the shit hits the fan.
So far I have analyzed about 5 sample sets of data, and I would like to run more, but the results are all saying the same thing. A cumulative marks-based system with weighted categories and weighted terms lowers the overall school mark by around 2 - 3% which is statistically significant.
Let's say that the school wants the terms to be weighted as follows:
Term 1 -- 15%
Term 2 -- 20%
Term 3 -- 15%
Term 4 -- 15%
Final Exam -- 30%
Let's say that there are the following categories
Tests -- 60%
Labs -- 20%
Homework -- 20%
A term-by-term spreadsheet would apply those categories to each term, calculate a mark for each term, average the marks according to the weights above, and then calculate the final grade.
A cumulative spreadsheet with weighted terms built in would do something similar, but it would calculate everything based on a percentage of the *final* mark as follows
T1 and T4 Tests -- 9% (60% x 15%)
T1 and T4 Labs -- 3%
T1 and T4 HW -- 3%
T2 and T3 Tests -- 12% (60% x 20%)
T2 and T3 Labs - 4%
T2 and T3 HW - 4%
Final Exam - 30%
A quick check shows this all adds up to 100%
No wonder the administrators always frown on this particular kind of cumulative spreadsheet. Or, in former schools I taught at, they outrightly banned this way of doing marks.
As for why the marks are lowered this way, I have some idea, but it would be too complicated to get into here.
Thursday, 18 November 2010
Statistical Project
In keeping with that last post about cumulative vs. term marks and all the controversy involved, I've got my hands on all my past marks from the old schools I taught at in Wuhan and Dalian.
Since my marks were all term-by-term reported and then averaged to get the final, I can easily combine all those marks into a retroactive cumulative spreadsheet system and see if there are any differences.
If there are, I will be mighty curious to see what's going on.
The prevailing controversy basically says that cumulative marks give a lower 'school mark' or final mark, compared to doing separate term-by-term marks.
Since my marks were all term-by-term reported and then averaged to get the final, I can easily combine all those marks into a retroactive cumulative spreadsheet system and see if there are any differences.
If there are, I will be mighty curious to see what's going on.
The prevailing controversy basically says that cumulative marks give a lower 'school mark' or final mark, compared to doing separate term-by-term marks.
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