How To Count 1.3 Billion People?

Today's weather: High = 23 Low = 13
Keep up this run of gorgeous sunny days!!!!!!

Every 10 years, the People's Republic does a census. This is actually my first experience with a population census, as I arrived to China in 2001 and the last one was done before I got here.

The newspaper articles are rather clear about the difficulties faced by the census workers this time round. The majority of residents don't trust strangers knocking at their door, and are suspicious. This goes hand in hand with a faced-paced lifestyle in Shanghai when it's also hard to find people at home. So the workers try to show up between 5pm to 9pm and catch as many people as possible. But they figure that 2 out of 10 people reached is a good thing. That's how hard it is to do the survey.

Somehow or other they'll be able to do their census. My guess is they would use pre-existing data from police registrations to get the numbers. By law, every resident must register their address with the local police station, otherwise known as 'pai suo chu'.

So if the numbers can be found from the police station, then the purpose of doing the census must be to ask questions and get survey forms filled by those residents who can be reached. In fact, it's a lot like what they do from my home country Canada. Some of the forms are standard, but a randomized 1 out of 10 has an extended form.

They mainly want to know migration patterns and how many people are really living in the cities. Shanghai has a huge floating population, and it's anyone's guess as to what it actually is. The official population figure is around 20 million, but a 4-5 million floating population is quite likely.

The problem, however, is this. The floating population is not registered with the police, because most of them are migrant workers who come into Shanghai from the countryside. So if they're not going to register with the police, then why would they be available to answer questions from a census worker? Despite the so-called reforms, there is a 'hukou system' that is rather entrenched. Basically it means they need to have a Shanghai 'hukou' or residents permit, in order to get social benefits, and of course, to register with the police. No hukou, no registration, so how can they track this?

The census undertaking is a laudable goal, but I seriously doubt we'll ever know the true population figures for the cities. There is safety in numbers. When there are too many people to track, it makes registration a very difficult thing. This of course would also apply to me tootling around the city on an unregistered bike.