Ramifications of the Fuel Ban on Scooters

Last couple of posts highlighted the details of the latest effort for the Shanghai government to crack down on what they consider pests like flies: unlicensed scooters.

This is not the first time something like this has happened. Gas scooters were effectively outlawed in 2006. After a year of getting people to switch over the LPG scooters as an alternative, they launched a powerful crackdown. It was common to see the police taking away scooters by the truckload to the impound lot, as well as numerous road checkpoints.

It's not just Shanghai either. There are dozens and dozens of cities in China that have implemented bans on motorcycles and gas scooters. The severity and actual reality of the ban depends on how much it is being enforced. Some cities with a "ban" such as Wuhan can be filled with scooters and motorbikes, and the only problem is trying to license them legally. Shanghai is somewhat similar, but you still see the illegal bikes everywhere. Whether or not the fuel ban will get them off the road remains to be seen.

Other cities such as Hangzhou and Guangzhou are truly devoid of such bikes within the city centers as you cannot see them. So it begs the question as to how those other cities manage to actually do it, and no doubt Shanghai is interested.

The reasons why city governments want these vehicles off the road downtown are as follows:

1. Noise pollution. Understandable given how loud these suckers can be if they are illegally modified. Many times I am woken at night as they roar through my downtown neighborhood and blast their airhorns.
2. Air pollution. This was certainly a problem in 2000-05 in Shanghai when the streets were filled with gas scooters. It was nowhere near the current problem in Vietnamese and Indonesian cities, but still, you could choke on the exhaust.
3. Safety. Most the bikes are unlicensed and uninsured, so getting into an accident is lose-lose for all involved. There have been numerous cases of hit-and-runs with unlicensed bikes and the danger to pedestrians.
4. Image of the city. As the city develops more, they want to showcase cars, not bikes. Nuff said.
5. Congestion. I don't quite buy the argument in Shanghai that two-wheeled traffic creates more congestion for the car users, but this is certainly a reality in Indonesia. If the balance tips a certain way, it can be utter bedlam.

Since 2006, the city of Shanghai effectively cut off the circulation of new motorbike license plates within the downtown areas. Whatever downtown plates remained in circulation could be exchanged for car plates (which in and out of themselves, cost a FORTUNE and are auctioned off montly) or resold. As the years go on, the motorbike plates get scarcer and it is virtually impossible to get a legally registered downtown plate.

All this being said, in the rural areas it is still possible to get a plate, known as a "C Plate". In fact, the price is not very expensive. While a time-consuming bureaucratic process which I'm about to attempt for next year, this is in fact the best option for those who want to ride around legally. The restriction on a 'C plate' is that you can't ride into the downtown areas, but there is no problem with getting gas or tootling around in the countryside.

I actually should have gone for this a couple years ago when I lived in the suburbs as such a plate would have come in most handy.

Generally, the sale of motorcycles is sky-high for people in rural areas and there are no restrictions for riding there. It is mainly the city centers that governments don't want to see these eyesores.

So why bother continuing to ride around downtown given all this? Well, time-savings and punctuality are the biggest reasons. Nothing quite like a leisurely sleep-in and a 5 minute motorcycle ride to work, as opposed to 30+ minutes on the crowded subway with lots of walking and convoluted routes thrown in.

There is much to be said about responsible riding and keeping the speeds low, making sure to be courteous to others. By far the majority of illegal scooter riders are locals who have souped up their bikes or have illegally modified LPG bikes. This can all be done at a massive 'underground' (not literally) scooter market in the north of the city which can do basically anything involving bikes.

This market has now developed a black market for gasoline, given the recent ban. A selected 'petrol runner' will legally fill a large tank, whether a motorcycle or a car, and then siphon it off to illegal scooter riders using a simple device bought from Ebay. The market price hasn't stabilized for this yet, but it is slightly higher than the pump price and the 'petrol runners' can make a lot of money by selling large amounts. Another option is to store the fuel in bottles and containers seen at the myriad of (also illegal) motorcycle shops around the city that service the scooters

This market has also begun to sell fake Shanghai license plates and the sales are brisk. They buy them direct from the factory that produces the real license plates, so the quality is in fact 100% real. It is one of dozens of copies of someone else's actual license plate who participates in this venture by offering to use his registration. The fake Shanghai plates are then used by scooter riders who pull up to the gas station and get fuel. The market price for these is very cheap, only about 300 RMB. They can even come with the vehicle registration booklet.

What I fear about this is that the sales will be too brisk, and the gas stations and traffic police are going to catch on real quick. I have since been going to the suburbs to get gas, as I enjoy the long rides anyway. Most of the locals will not do this, and instead prefer to buy the black market gas or use the fake plates downtown.

The sad thing about all this is I had predicted 3 years ago that the police would do a gas station crackdown on bikes. In an offhand comment made to a friend I had said, "If the police really want to get these scooters off the road, they will go after the gas stations and make them refuse a fuelup". And now that has happened.

So here are the latest pessimistic predictions about what could happen next:

1. The fake plate sales will be super brisk and the gas stations will catch on, in conjunction with the traffic police, requiring stricter checks of licenses and registration at the pump
2. The prohibitions against scooter refueling will spread to gas stations in the rural areas. Could get into some friction with the farmers over that, but the scenario is likely.
3. People will attempt to use the self-serve stations, especially the petrol runners. The self-serve stations are where you purchase a pre-paid card and swipe it at the pump, but of course it can only be used for cars.
4. Crackdowns will occur at the scooter market like in the past, this time targeting the black market fuel.
5. The traffic police will launch a massive anti-bike crackdown sometime later this year or Jan 1st next year, similar to what was done in the past.

The war has only just begun.