Tibet Trip, Medium Risk

Today's weather: High = 19 Low = 15
Abrupt change in weather , rainy, cold

This Tibet province research draws me in like a moth to a flame. I'm just wondering why the heck I didn't consider doing a trip like this SOONER, especially during the months of 2006-07 when it would have been the perfect time. Procrastination has now made it really difficult to do the trip now, but at least it's still possible with a bit of risk.

There is much conflicting information out there on what a trip to Tibet province, part of China is actually like right now. Depending on the level of risk you're willing to accept, and the money you're willing to pay, you can do an overland trip in three ways

1. Totally legal, totally expensive, $100-150 a day, minimal risk. This involves hiring a guide with land cruisers, and arranging all permits in advance, etc. Of course there is still risk with this option as you can't trust all the tour guides, especially the newer ones flocking to this business to make a quick buck.

2. Semi-legal. Cheaper, with medium risk, about $50 a day. I'm leaning more and more towards this option. See below for details.

3. Illegal. Much cheaper, about $10-15 a day, but high levels of risk. It may very well be like the probability simulation mentioned earlier, where you roll the dice and see if a '6' comes up at the checkpoint. Having run that simulation dozens of times now, the part where you get caught invariably happens in the middle somewhere. With skill and savvy, checkpoints can be avoided, but there's just too much risk to make this option comfortable.

There are blogs of people who have done illegal trips, but I'd rather not post links to them.

The main issue here is limited time, an unfortunate reality for every trip I've had to face with. Getting sent back to a prior city at some police checkpoint is not a risk I'm willing to tolerate when I don't have time on my hands to make a 2nd attempt

So the semi-legal way is to first book an actual tour to Lhasa, and to take the shortest and cheapest one available. Paying for just the guide's salary and the hotels works out to $50 a day or so. There are several advantages to actually going on a tour with a guide:

1. I get the entry permit.
2. The entry permit allows me to fly directly into Lhasa and save time. The train is a slower option, and they don't always check permit to buy ticket or board. But the permit is most definetely required to board a plane. So I may as well fly in style this way.
3. The 3-day or so spent in Lhasa can help acclimatize to the altitude
4. The guide can help get into places like the Potala Palace and others that are off-limits without a permit.
5. The guide is most useful for information about Lhasa itself and the road ahead. See below
6. It's actually possible to stay in hotels. Reports 'on the ground' right now with permit-less travelers show how difficult it is without the papers.
7. I would need to be in Lhasa for 3 days to apply for the Nepal visa anyway.

The idea is to book the tour, and then book a cheap train ticket out of Lhasa to the nearest city outside of Tibet province, such as Golmud or something like that. The transportation out of Tibet province would be sufficient to get the permit and book the tourt, as well as other documents which aren't that difficult to obtain.

After Lhasa, I'd find some way to leave while keeping the permit in hand and not necessarily using the train ticket -- maybe sell it off to some guy at a hostel or something or just cut my losses. I'd then get on the bicycle and start riding to the Nepal border.

Permit in hand, I'd then see how it goes with checkpoints along the way. Technically you need a separate permit to travel outside Lhasa. But with anything in China, especially Tibet which is a part of China, it helps to have something in hand as opposed to nothing.

It's a lot like driving a motorcycle with a car drivers license. Ideally you'd want the motorbike license, but the car license is better than no license.

So the first checkpoint out of Lhasa on a bicycle would be like testing the waters. It is only 6km out, so no big deal if I get sent back to the city. Having been in China long enough, I have a good feeling this will work, as having the wrong permit is better than no permit.

If it's really difficult to get through on the bike with the entry permit, I'll then try the mix of tactics by those who have done the trip illegally, and avoid checkpoints, etc. The very last part would be the China -- Nepal border and again, at least having an entry permit would be more optimistic than having nothing.

All in all, it's a level of risk I can handle.